At the end of 2022, Meta was in a spot of bother, thanks largely to their Metaverse delusion but also because the continual loss of Western users was starting to show on the books. The Metaverse they’d presented to the world had all the appeal of Basingstoke and a comparable amount of visitors but had cost $100bn to develop. They were getting called out repeatedly on regulatory issues, watching a declining userbase, a first-ever revenue drop and a share price that had plunged by two-thirds in a single year. By the end of 2022, commentators were saying their time is over. It looked like Meta had started a slow, steady slide towards Nokiadom.
Then, like Paul Newman in that poker scene in The Sting, Zuck showed his cards. (Actually, take a 10 min break and watch that wonderful scene. You work hard; you deserve it. I’ll wait.)
AI Development
It turns out, while no one was looking, they had advanced pretty far in the AI space. Like a conman in the guise of a LinkedIn influencer, all that Metaverse talk was really meant to distract us from the sleight of hand that was underway. While we were transfixed by the sight of a $100bn “incel panic room”*, they were preparing to launch a variety of sector-leading generative AI models, including one of the best regarded open source large language models: LLaMa.
Twitter Competitor
Meta has another social network in development and are quite open about who they’re going after. One of the main reasons Twitter has been able to continue, albeit in a greatly depleted form, is that there hasn’t been a viable, attractive enough alternative. If anyone has the cash, experience and reach to deliver one, it’s Meta.
TikTok Ban
It’s far from certain TikTok is going to get banned in the US (and then probably more of the West) but the odds only seem to be going one way. Instagram Reels will be the obvious place the creators, brands and users will go.
Now I look at it, that title is wrong isn’t it? It’s more like the comeback has already happened and they’re about to hit some monstrous new level of success. Whether a Meta-dominated social and advertising landscape is a good thing is another question (for which the answer is “God, no”) but it is an impressive feat considering the forces working against them and their own past missteps. And now I’ve compared Zuckerberg to Paul Newman, I kind of want him to succeed.
*credit: Scott Galloway
Written by Paul North, Head of AI, big group.